World Cup 2014 draw – all you need to know

First of all, the eagle-eyed among you will have noticed that Pot 4 (below) currently contains nine teams, while Pot 2 has seven.

That's because early on in the draw, one European team will be taken from Pot 4 and put into Pot 2 to even out the numbers. That European team will be kept away from the UEFA seeds (to ensure that no group has three European teams in it), but it's probably not a fate Roy Hodgson will want for England.

It leaves open the possibility of England getting a tough South American Pot 1 seed such as Argentina or Brazil – as well as a European Pot 4 team such as Italy or the Netherlands.

To ensure that no group has two South American teams in it, Chile and Ecuador will be kept separate from the four South American seeds. Clear as mud? Good, let's press on.

That riveting Pot 2 complexity aside, it's a draw of eight groups made up of one team from each pot. What's really intriguing is that there is the possibility of wild variety in the quality of team in each group. For example, it's possible for the draw to bring up a group of death (say, Spain, the Netherlands, Chile and the USA), while also delivering a group of dross (Switzerland, Greece, Algeria and Honduras, for example).

Donning both our English hat (a bowler) and our international hat (probably some kind of flag-festooned sombrero), Sport has examined each pot to assess the strength of the teams involved on a sliding scale. Thus England fans can get a quick gauge on the nations they ideally want to draw and avoid, with a particular eye on any dark horses that stand, snorting their nostrils in wait.

THE POTS

Pot 1 (Seeds)
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Uruguay
Belgium
Germany
Spain
Switzerland

Pot 2 (CAF, CONMEBOL + one UEFA*)
Algeria
Cameroon
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Nigeria
Chile
Ecuador

Pot 3 (AFC + CONCACAF)
Australia
Iran
Japan
South Korea
Costa Rica
Honduras
Mexico
USA

Pot 4 (UEFA)
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
England
France
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Russia

*To be taken from Pot 4 and moved in to Pot 2 at the start of the draw
POT 1

'The giant is back' crowed BRAZIL's raucous fans as the Selecao spanked world champions Spain 3-0 in the final of the Confederations Cup. They still look less than rock solid at the back, with David Luiz often doing more clean-up work than a school janitor, but this is a team packed with physically dynamic yet technically adept players. Throw in the burgeoning brilliance of Neymar and Oscar, plus home advantage, and you have the most challenging opponents in the competition.

Also on the list of teams England would really rather avoid is ARGENTINA. Lionel Messi – finally producing his best form for his country – heads up a squad rich in goal-scoring prowess (35 in 16 qualifying games). Argentina's previous World Cup triumphs, in 1978 and 1986, came on South American soil. We suggest 2014 offers an excellent opportunity for a third.

Europe's two best sides make up the quartet of pre-tournament favourites, with the depth of talent at manager Jogi Low's disposal making GERMANY a serious threat. Mario Gotze, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos, Thomas Muller, Marco Reus and (if fit) Sami Khedira are all competing for their place – and that's just the midfield. However, the pressure is on Low: the feeling in Germany is that it's time this team won a trophy as reward for all its pretty football.

SPAIN know all about coping with pressure. Their own midfield is also gorged with talent, yet there's a feeling this is a side on the wane. The ageing limbs of Carles Puyol in defence and David Villa up front haven't been convincingly replaced. That said, voices whispered the same thing before Euro 2012 and they ended up wrecking Italy 4-0 in the final. Still a threat.

The next four seeds are less established, but of those COLOMBIA could be the coming force (so long as Pele hasn't tipped them by the time you read this). Finishing second only to Argentina in South American qualifying, the team boasts one of the world's elite strikers in Radamel Falcao, prolific Porto marksman Jackson Martinez, and a 'golden generation' including Monaco starlet James Rodriguez backing them up.

The other football hipster fancies are BELGIUM. We're only too aware of how strong the spine of this team is (Simon Mignolet, Vincent Kompany, Marouane Fellaini, Eden Hazard, Christian Benteke and/or Romelu Lukaku) because we see it in the Premier League each week. But this is a team that's only begun making the most of its talent recently, and a lack of big-tournament experience could cost them. Belgium are a dark horse that could go all the way – or plough into the first fence.

URUGUAY are another team that are tricky to gauge. They boast the goal-grabbing prowess of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani and are reigning Copa America champions, yet finished behind both Chile and Ecuador in South American qualifying and required a playoff win against Jordan to reach the World Cup. That said, results improved as qualification went on, so it's very possible that cunning coach Oscar Tabarez has found a formula for La Celeste success at the right time.

The weakest of the seeds is SWITZERLAND. They have a savvy manager in Ottmar Hitzfeld and boast midfield talent with the likes of Bayern Munich's fleet-footed Xherdan Shaqiri and Napoli lynchpin Gokhan Inler. However, their forward line is short of goals (central defender Fabian Schar was their top scorer in qualifying, with a grand total of three) and they tend to stink the joint out at major tournaments.

POT 2

With a mixture of African, South American and one European side (identity to be confirmed), Pot 2 is the biggest lottery of them all, with CHILE the bogey team most European sides will want to avoid. The Chileans initially struggled after Marcelo Bielsa departed in 2011, but new coach Jorge Sampaoli – who arrived midway through their qualifying campaign – has reintroduced a high-pressing, ultra-attacking game. La Roja have lost only two of the 15 games since his arrival, have a genuinely world-class talent in Alexis Sanchez and should enjoy playing on home soil (continentally speaking).

The random European side adds an element of chaos to this group, because nobody knows if it'll be one to avoid (please not the Dutch!) or a relative soft touch (no offence, Croatia). However, we do know that the African threat will come strongly from GHANA, who fired in an impressive 25 goals in eight qualifying matches, with Asamoah Gyan still the main man.

IVORY COAST beat Senegal 4-2 in the African playoffs, and while they were not quite as convincing as the scoreline suggests, the Elephants do boast a fearsome array of world-class superstars. That's something Nigeria cannot claim, but the reigning Africa Cup of Nations champions went unbeaten in qualifying and look a united team under inspirational manager and former captain Stephen Keshi.

CAMEROON, meanwhile, aren't the force they once were, with 32-year-old Samuel Eto'o still very much their stand-out threat going forward. German Volker Finke is the man tasked with leading the Indomitable Lions at the World Cup, but reports of rifts with Eto'o already don't fill you with confidence.

The weakest prey in this pot is ECUADOR and Algeria. For Ecuador, goals are the issue, with a lot of pressure on Lokomotiv Moscow man Felipe Caicedo to lead the line. As for ALGERIA: anyone who remembers their 0-0 draw against England four years ago will be praying to avoid a rerun of one of the dullest World Cup matches ever played. Away goals helped the Algerians past Burkina Faso in qualification, but while defensive solidity is their gameplan, they tend to offer little threat going forward.

POT 3

The team to avoid in pot three are JAPAN. They cruised through their qualifying group, with Mainz forward Shinji Okazaki carrying their largest threat. He is a potential star of 2014, while Manchester United's Shinji Kagawa is hardly goal-shy at international level either (16 in 52 games).

USA come next, where Tim Howard, Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey remain the major names on Jurgen Klinsmann's teamsheet. They're a team that play as more than the sum of their parts, and are capable of pulling off an upset.

IRAN come into the World Cup with a predictability about them, in that they're just hard to play against. On their road to qualification, Carlos Queiroz's men kept 10 clean sheets in 16 games, and conceded just seven times altogether. Nil-nil draws are the priority.

A change of manager after securing qualification make SOUTH KOREA, on the other hand, a bit of an unexpected outfit. Son Heung-Min, Koo Ja-Cheol and veteran Lee Dong-Gook have the talent, but unpredictability might be South Korea's weapon.

AUSTRALIA are a team you wouldn't mind drawing, on current form. The Socceroos managed only three wins from a group containing Iraq, Oman, Jordan and Japan, lost a friendly against France 6-0 in October and sacked their manager.

Not to be outdone, MEXICO won only two of 10 games in CONCACAF qualifying, scoring just seven goals. New boss Miguel Herrera led them through a playoff win against New Zealand by dropping all of the Europe-based Mexican stars.

At least Mexico have stars to call on, however, and could pull themselves out of the mierda in time for next summer. COSTA RICA and Honduras have no such luck. The former won every home match in qualifying but, ominously, struggled badly on their travels, failing to win at all.

HONDURAS recently tested the waters in Brazil and lost 5-0 to the hosts, offering up a couple of defensive errors along the way. It does not augur well.

POT 4

There's a one-in-nine chance that ENGLAND could be ripped from Pot 4 and chucked into Pot 2 before the draw even starts (see above for an explanation). In an ideal world, England would like to stay safely in Pot 4 – preferably with the likes of the NETHERLANDS and ITALY – to ensure they can't possibly be drawn together. That danger duo both came through their UEFA qualifying groups unbeaten and are perhaps unlucky not to be seeded. Louis van Gaal's Dutch side scored 34 goals in 10 qualifiers and are the biggest threat.

Elsewhere, PORTUGAL might have come through a playoff, but Cristiano Ronaldo proved he's ready for the big stage – who knew?– and he alone means they'll be more feared than a RUSSIA side that beat them to the top of their qualifying group, thanks to a team built on solidity at the back. The CSKA Moscow trio of Igor Akinfeev, Sergei Ignashevich and Aleksei Berezutski will make them a tough team to break down.

FRANCE tend to either implode hilariously or surpass expectations in major tournaments, and Didier Deschamps' men are already showing the required inconsistency.

A dreadful first-leg performance in their playoff against Ukraine was blown away by a brilliant 3-0 win in the home leg. With Franck Ribery, Karim Benzema, Yohan Cabaye and a seemingly rejuvenated Samir Nasri just a handful of the world-class players they can call upon, the French are a dangerous but unpredictable animal.

Debutants BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA won their qualifying group with strikers Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic scoring a whopping 18 goals between them. They can look dodgy at the back, however, and Asmir Begovic could be a busy man in Brazil.

CROATIA and GREECE are not the forces they once were. The former have more talent, although the fact that forward Mario Mandzukic will start the World Cup suspended is a blow.